Predictive analytics
Amazing impact

Challenge

The port of Gothenburg is the largest port in Scandinavia and an important hub for international trade to and from Sweden. Due to the labour dispute in the port, the amount of goods that take the route through the port has decreased significantly.

Since the port is of great importance for Swedish import and export, the labour conflict has had large impact on the Swedish economy. The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (Svenskt Näringsliv) therefore commissioned DAMVAD Analytics the assignment to conduct a study on the consequences of the labor conflict in the port of Gothenburg for businesses and other stake holders. We modelled re-routing of freight transportation flows (containers) to and from Sweden, and calculated costs for the business sector and the society as a whole.

Impact

Our study calculated the increased cost of the conflict for the Swedish business sector SEK 4,5 billion in the year 2017. Socio-economic costs, such as increased carbon dioxide emissions and infrastructural damage, amounted to SEK 190 million.

The results from the study allowed the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise to communicate the costs created by the conflict in the port of Gothenburg to relevant actors and raise awareness of how the conflict affects the Swedish economy.

Challenge

How to ensure the right competence to Swedish businesses is of great importance for Swedish competitiveness and growth. Since colleges and universities is a vital source of new competence, it is of outmost importance that these institutions work in the most effective way and that resources are allocated efficiently.

The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (Svenskt Näringsliv) has initiated a side-investigation to the Swedish government’s official investigation of the governance of higher education in Sweden, including resource allocation. DAMVAD Analytics has contributed with one of several reports to this side-investigation, using experiences from Denmark’s framework for research and higher education.

To map the research and higher education in Denmark, as well as the reforms that have been carried out in recent years, literature studies, interviews and statistical methods were conducted.

Impact

The report highlights the legislation and regulations of Denmark’s higher education system. Several political instruments that Denmark introduced the last years are described in the study, including their effects on the students’ university applications and school results.

Overall, the reforms introduced in research and education in Denmark have been characterized by consolidation and focus on strengths rather than being broad. Great inspiration can be derived from these reforms when renewing the Swedish education system.

Challenge

The Danish Heart Foundation has supported research and researchers in cardiovascular disease and rehabilitation by more than 500 million. When the Foundation started its support scheme for cardiovascular research, the research area was poorly funded. That is no longer the case. The relative total size of the Danish Heart Foundation’s funding of research has been significantly reduced over time. This called for a review of how the Foundation’ can make an impact and position itself among the other public and private research funding bodies.

On this basis, the Danish Heart Foundation commissioned DAMVAD Analytics to evaluate the previous support strategy to get a qualified and critical view of the support scheme. The overall goal was to give the Foundation inspiration on new ways of allocating research funds.

Impact

The results of the evaluation indicate that the Heart Foundation’s support has had a positive impact on research. The support has over the past 10 years contributed to a major increase in the research volume while strengthening the research quality in the cardiovascular field.

By comparing evidence it became clear that the Danish Heart Foundation could get more research results of a higher quality, for the benefit of more patients by changing its support structure to adapt to the current trends of funding among public and private funding bodies.

Based on the report’s recommendations, The Danish Heart Foundation decided to increase its future research budget. In 2017 the Foundation raised the budget by 50 pct. to 37 million. DKK per year from 2017. The Foundation also decided to redesign the support scheme to focus more on thematic strategic research with fewer but larger projects. Similarly, the Heart Foundation decided to support fewer - but the very best - research talents.

“It is crucial for future research that we support the researchers who can give us crucial knowledge about prevention or new treatment", says Kim Høgh. CEO of the Danish Heart Foundation.

Challenge

Nature Energy, a gas energy supplier, is Denmark’s leading producer of biogas. Each year Nature Energy converts more than 1,000,000 tons of agricultural waste into biogas on their four large-scale biogas plants – enough to heat 30,000 households with sustainable energy. Nature Energy is currently building another three plants. Amongst those Korskro Plant will be the largest in the world. The company is planning to establish a total of 17 biogas plants in Denmark and expand to the rest of Europe. To support these investments the previous owners – 8 municipalites – sold the company to London-based Pioneer Point Partners in December 2017.

Given that Nature Energy is a key element of the Danish energy infrastructure, the previous public ownership and the size of the deal, the decision to sell the company needed to be backed by solid calculations of the long term business potential for Nature Energy and for the Danish economy.

Impact

DAMVAD Analytics was part of the process when the energy supplier and biogas pioneer Nature Energy was sold to London-based Pioneer Point Partners for 1.1 bn. DKK. We showed that the planned investments in biogas production in Denmark and abroad have a significant potential for supporting new Danish jobs, exports and GDP.

Nature Energy actively communicated how the economy would benefit in terms of jobs and GDP, when the sale of Nature Energy was announced. These economic effects were quoted and discussed nationwide in television, newspapers, industry media and on social media. DAMVAD Analytics provided the numbers based on our economic impact models.

Specifically, we calculated growth, job and GDP effects of 1) building and operating 10 new biogas production facilities in Denmark, 2) investing in foreign production facilities, and 3) we estimated the export potential for biogas technologies. Nature Energy’s investments in domestic biogas production has resulted in development of new technologies, which positions them advantageously in competition with foreign manufacturers.

Challenge

Skanska builds for a better society through their many projects executed each year. The goal is for every project to be profitable while being executed in line with Skanska's ambition to be a preferred partner and industry leader. The difficulty is to know which investment decisions will be smart and profitable. And where to meet the clients’ future needs. The society is changing and large long-term investment decisions should be thoroughly carried out. It is crucial to understand what will happen with communities, industries, companies and the public sector.

Impact

Based on advanced application of vast data from many sources and advanced modelling, DAMVAD Analytics provides Skanska with better understanding about future trends and developments on macro and micro levels.

Elo Alsing, Market Manager, Skanska:; "We are very satisfied with the collaboration, which not only has been very pleasant but also gives us crucial insights that we can apply to meet our clients future needs. The innovative combination of data empowers us with the ability to look ahead which makes it easier to be profitable."

Challenge

Denmark’s position as an energy-technology front-runner provides a strong basis for meeting goals of a green transition, while simultaneously benefiting Danish growth, employment and exports. In order to maintain this position, the Danish Energy Commission was tasked with drawing up a comprehensive energy and climate policy plan for the period 2020-2030. An important component to this plan is R&D in energy technology. It is therefore central to understand how Denmark compares internationally, while also learning from innovation processes in other countries.

Impact

Using a variety of data sources on key performance indicators and in-depth interviews with leading authorities in energy sectors in Finland, Sweden, Germany, USA, and South Korea, DAMVAD Analytics was able to provide the Danish Energy Commission with indicators on Denmark’s positions of strength, as well as areas of improvement. The analysis found significant strengths in terms of the Danish value chain for developing energy technology, while it revealed that a higher degree of coordination among public entities could strengthen the strategic focus of energy-tech development.

Challenge

Billund Airport is the second largest international airport in Denmark servicing mainly West Denmark.

Billund Airport has grown rapidly in recent years despite the absence of railways and highways to the airport. To ensure continued growth it is important to improve access to the airport. This requires publicly financed investments in new infrastructure. Billund Airport wants to be able to have a fact-based dialogue with all stakeholders about how to prioritize these infrastructure projects. The benefit is not only to the airport itself but more importantly to the citizens and companies in West Denmark through shorter and easier travel time to and from the airport – and as a result better access to international destinations. However, the infrastructure analyses traditionally used by the Ministry of Transport does not fully capture the large dynamic effects of better access to an international airport.

Impact

DAMVAD Analytics has analyzed how citizens and companies in West Denmark benefits from having access to Billund Airport.

International connections give better access to foreign companies and universities and makes it more attractive for companies (both foreign and domestic) to invest in and trade with West Denmark. This increases productivity in West Denmark and thereby GDP. We have shown that the current GDP-impact of the airport is around 10 bn. DKK annually. Using econometric analysis on Billund Airport’s passenger data we show, that establishing a rail connection will improve the GDP-impact by 0.7 bn. DKK annually. Upgrading the roads to and from the airport will have similar positive effects. The documentation being brought forward by DAMVAD Analytics has been applied in the Transports Committee in the Danish parliament in the process of preparing a new national aviation strategy.

Challenge

The resources for research funding are scarce. There is a need for governments and research institutions to maximize benefit for society.

The technical universities in the Nordic countries have a recurring collective wish to promote best practice. Therefore, DAMVAD Analytics conducted a micro data assessment of the impacts on economic growth of Aalto University in Finland, NTNU in Norway and The Danish Technical University. We applied leading algorithms and econometric methods to show impact over time. This was possible given our authorization to access microdata on company performance at the national statistical offices.

Impact

The project gives a profound basis for highlighting the importance of technical research and innovation priorities.

It provides the universities with a much better position for stakeholder dialogue. For the Aalto University in Finland the project has been crucial in advancing the national innovation agenda on addressing growth challenges. Launching the findings rector Tuula Teeri states:

“We therefore need a bold national vision and action plan for research and innovation, that carries over different government terms.”

Furthermore, the project empowers the universities to further develop their collaboration with companies which is of increasing importance. Findings such as the fact that “the NTNU also has a powerful regional presence” being highlighted byt the NTNU Pro-Rector for Innovation Toril Nagelhus Hernes gives the universities better insight into which companies they work with.

Challenge

The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise (Svenskt Näringsliv) commissioned DAMVAD Analytics to conduct a study on the value created in Swedish companies as a consequence of recruiting labor from countries outside EU/EES.

The effects were estimated through an econometric model, where the economic performance of companies recruiting labor immigrants was compared to a control group.

We found that recruitments of non-EU/EES employees improve companies’ economic performance. Improved performance is consistent within companies in a wide range of sectors and not only in e.g. high-tech sectors.

Impact

The study resulted in a written report. The results were also communicated to policy makers and regulators at presentations and seminars. The report also lay the ground for an article in the Swedish journal "Ekonomisk Debatt".

The project allowed The Confederation of Swedish Enterprise to communicate the socio-economic values created by labor immigrants to relevant stake holder. They were also able to promote the importance of designing laws and regulations in a way that simplifies the process of recruitment of international labor.

Challenge

The University of Southern Denmark wanted to make sure that courses and training activities for professionals were targeted the needs of the labour market. However, it is a big challenge to have a thorough and in-depth understanding of the changing needs for skills and qualifications amongst the 300.000 active companies in Denmark. Many resources could be spent on dialogues with companies without consciousness about their training needs. To get a much more detailed understanding of the specific needs in organizations DAMVAD Analytics assisted by a truly data driven approach. Based on an extensive collection of job postings on the internet, linked to the company registry, we applied an advanced algorithm to identify companies with the need for skills that were addressed through the courses of the university.

Impact

DAMVAD Analytics delivered a market analysis and a comprehensive mapping of companies, NGO’s and government organizations with the specific needs for competencies that SDU addresses with the training courses. The mapping can be is applied in a market segmentation and concept development process in order to improve business development and go to market strategies. The deliverable enables to engage with and tailor courses to clients with a deeper understanding of their needs.

Challenge

The Knowledge Foundation (KK-stiftelsen) gave us the assignment to conduct an impact assessment of one of the foundation’s research funding programs. The impact assessment consisted of two main elements:

Impacts on the business sector: This includes capacity building in participating companies, as well as increased productivity in the same companies.

Impacts on institutions of higher education (HEIs): This includes impacts on research capacity and quality of research.

Impact

The results indicate that over a 6-year period, aggregate growth increased by 60 % more among participating companies compared to a control group.

We also found a significant impact on the scientific environments that the projects were part of. Thus, the scientific environments contribute to increased research productivity at the respective HEI.

The study was used by the Knowledge Foundation to communicate the value of scientific co-production between HEIs and the private sector.

Challenge

While Medicoindustrien had reported key figures for several years for the Danish medical devices sector, there had never been an attempt to identify and quantify the whole value chain ranging from subcontractors to consumers. Other life science industries had more political focus. The industry needed better grounds for stakeholder dialogue through a common picture of the sector’s contribution to society. Through sales and exports of medical devices we were able to identify the relevant companies and by applying input-output models we mapped the economic contribution through the whole value chain.

Impact

DAMVAD Analytics provided Medicoindustrien with important key figures such as employment, GDP, revenues, salary levels, taxes, exports, innovation, investments and education levels in the sector. With these figures Medicoindustrien is equipped with a powerful tool in their dialogue with key stakeholders. If we imagine a Denmark without a medical devices sector, the Danish society would be 29 billion DKK poorer. The Danish medical devices sector reached new heights with a total revenue of 56 billion DKK. These results have been presented for the Danish policy committee for the life science industry.